Boris Brexit And The Winter Of Discontent

After more than 18 months of absence, I crossed the Canal and arrived in England. It’s the vicious Brexit confusion of political predators like David Frost, and stories of shortages of fuel, labor and food unable to cross the Channel Tunnel, much less increase the incidence of COVID. I’m afraid it might be like that. So the passenger seat popped between my teeth early at the Eurostar Gare du Nord terminal, hoping to make the connection as a breakthrough behind enemy lines.

The big surprise was that it took a total of 3 minutes to go through both passport controls which resulted in the robot in charge of British passport control rather than borrowing evasion skills. The brief passage wonders whether the coming winter of British discontent is merely a political mirage or the cause of economic catastrophe.

Price per liter

In my experience it is limited to central London but the prices are much higher than I remember and the staff shortage is quite obvious (cafes close early and restaurant reservations canceled due to staff shortages and ticket management for Pancras road to Pancras remaining due to labor shortages ). They told me many anecdotes about gas shortages and general blockages of cargo and goods.

In the market, interest rates on short-term bonds (two-year bonds) jumped from 0% to 0.60% and investors placed very high inflation rates in the swap market, in line with the increase in interest rates by the Bank of England that year. In short, this didn’t work out well for the UK after Brexit, and I think a growing number of commentators will remove the title “winter of discontent” as winter approaches.

Rate increase

There are interesting similarities between the current situation and the “dissatisfied” situation of the late 1970s.

For example, the truckers’ strike in the winter of 1978/1979 coincided with the current Brexit truck driver shortage, and in the 1970s food shortages and high inflation led to a dire situation (). However, it is much more visible than it is now).

In early 1979, then-Prime Minister Jim Callahan returned from an International Political Summit in the Caribbean joking about swimming in warm waters and then accusing the media of exaggerating the unrest around Britain. Lower. The next day he was greeted with the sun title “Crisis, what is the crisis?”, so his political fall was accelerated. To be exact, Boris Johnson spent most of the week in Marbella, but for now he’s for the media.

Wine for Brexit

He and his colleagues have studied and compared the economic side effects of Brexit very poorly, but they would blame inflation and deficits for problems in international supply chains. The fact that supply chain and labor problems are much smaller in Northern Ireland and that trade with the Republic is recovering suggests that Brexit is causing discontent in the UK, rather than global supply chain problems. I am willing.

The lesson I learned from the winter of discontent in the late 1970s was that it fueled a political revolution. Callahan, the unions and the Labor Party have lost confidence and Margaret Thatcher is poised to take power. From this point of view, the question arises whether a new political revolution will emerge after the shock of Brexit.

There has been much debate about Boris Johnson’s reluctance to stay long in Downing Street, suggesting that the Labor Party cannot mark the open goals that the post-Brexit environment offers. This paved the way for new leaders from the left and center, but it is difficult to identify many candidates.

He has written extensively about the rigidity of Britain’s two-party system and the failure of political entrepreneurship (several recent initiatives to create new parties have failed). When there is a revolution the center of the Tories is one point of observation, the temperate union of Northern Ireland and a few independent candidates can become popular and of course Scotland. I think Irish independence reformed politics. The dynamism and strength of Great Britain.

You may want to conclude that the UK is a basketball case for Brexit, but my old theory is that the UK is politically promoting globalization and is currently undermining it in a mix of forces. There is. In this context, the rule applies that Brexit is the first major rift at the beginning of the end of globalization, and therefore what happens next in the UK will resonate with other countries.

The risk in this case is that there will be a worldwide “winter of discontent.” There are several signs of this. In China, coal prices quadrupled, freight traffic off the coast of the United States was blocked and meat prices rose. Alexandria MP Ocasio Cortes wrote on Twitter in support of Strike to Bar. The only consoling observation I found was that the first page of economists was talking about the energy crisis. This marks the end of the crisis, according to my ground rules, First Page of the Economist.

The broad risk of combining all of these factors is that increases in food, labor and energy prices will prove to be more permanent than temporary. Central bankers tend to read price increases as “temporary,” but a study by Jeremy Rudd, a key figure in the mysterious world of central banking, shows that central banks are happy with inflation. Offer. If interest rates need to rise faster than households can afford, raising the price of a pint of beer will be the least of our worries.


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